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The car price issue will continue indefinitely (Public Board)

by Cornpop Sutton ⌂, A bad bad dude who makes good shine., Friday, May 12, 2023, 23:02 (311 days ago)
edited by Cornpop Sutton, Friday, May 12, 2023, 23:41

I just watched a video by a used car lot dealer who explained what the new and used car markets look like now, and what supply and demand looks like.

He makes a logical brick by brick case: https://youtu.be/y_J6k5iFOwc

There has been a ton of speculation that the declining economy, layoffs, and resultant repossessions will create a large supply of reasonably priced used vehicles.

It's not quite like that in real life. What is really unfolding in 2023:

- The best used cars are trade-ins on new vehicles. Trade-ins are at rock bottom rates because of new car prices + interest rate increases on loans.

- The used car supply that is currently coming on-line is mostly repossessed cars.

- Repossessed vehicles tend to be abused machines with poor cosmetics. Peeling paint jobs, chewed up upholstery, smashed body panels, etc. (The video was showing rows of cars with peeling paint... paint applied at the factory that basically just flakes off due to heat and sun exposure.)

- The new car price issue is circular. Because there are few good late model vehicles for sale, even budget minded buyers aren't buying late model used cars, and instead are keeping what they have if it is decent. Therefore the tier of buyers under new car buyers are not buying either. Therefore this is another supply of good quality used vehicles that is diminished.

- Therefore used car lots are filled with pure crap that you just don't want to buy. There aren't significant numbers of trade-ins.

- Planned obsolescence and the use of plastics in vehicles made in the last 25 years means that junky old cars aren't good prospects for refurbishment. They're meant to be recycled to basic materials like plastic, metal, rubber, etc.

- The best advice now is that if you need a decent used car, go to person to person sales. Don't bother with car lots, because the auctions they buy their inventory from are only presenting really crappy damaged cars.

Personally: I'd look into a vintage 60s or 70s vehicle, not even a collectible, but something with no electronics to speak of and older ignition systems.

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The car price issue will continue indefinitely

by ,ndo, Certifiable!, Saturday, May 13, 2023, 04:28 (311 days ago) @ Cornpop Sutton

Personally: I'd look into a vintage 60s or 70s vehicle, not even a collectible, but something with no electronics to speak of and older ignition systems.

Have all of those been converted to unleaded petrol (or is leaded petrol still available for sale)?

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EXCELLENT question, never gave it a thought - Leaded and Ethanol

by Cornpop Sutton ⌂, A bad bad dude who makes good shine., Saturday, May 13, 2023, 13:31 (310 days ago) @ ,ndo
edited by Cornpop Sutton, Saturday, May 13, 2023, 13:47

The US doesn't have leaded gas anymore. It was banned decades ago due to environmental concerns as well as issues such as brain damage from lead, and because of catalytic converter use there is no market for leaded gas anyway. I think it disappeared in the 80s from the market.

Great question and I did a bit of research. I figured that the problem was easily solved because there is a vibrant market in the US for classic cars that date back to the 1920s in some cases. Most of the small town vintage car rallies display 50s and 60s coupes and muscle cars.

I was totally unaware of the issue. Here is a great explainer: https://classicautoadvisors.com/2021/07/26/classic-car-gas-part-i-unleaded-fuel/

It turns out that there is a multitude of common "lead replacement" additives sold by auto parts stores. The other alternative is for a machine shop to modify the valve seats in the engine which means tearing the engine apart.

The other issue is that ethanol is universal (E10, 10% alcohol) and ethanol rots many parts. Here is the issue:

https://www.bellperformance.com/blog/how-to-protect-your-classic-car-from-modern-ethanol-fuel-problems

A vintage car may need some minor rework to tolerate the corrosion and water attraction of ethanol.

I can find no ethanol gasoline around me (it's marine fuel) but it costs 1/3 more than regular retail gas.

I was chatting with a neighbor who tears apart and rebuilds yard equipment and he said that ethanol is responsible for gum in old stored gas. He's literally cleaned jelly out of engines that had old gas.

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EXCELLENT question, never gave it a thought - Leaded and Ethanol

by ,ndo, Certifiable!, Sunday, May 14, 2023, 19:58 (309 days ago) @ Cornpop Sutton

I had forgotten about the additives. There was a period when I was adding additives to the tank of my leaded petrol car after leaded petrol was banned completely. Pain in the arse. I guess if you have a vintage car it is worth the effort.

Interesting photo in the article. 87/89/91 octane. Ours are 91/95/98 (plus E10 plus diesel plus possibly others). But we don't have selector buttons, we have separate hoses for each of the available fuels, which vary from station to station and brand to brand. Modern bowsers have multiple hoses side-by-side with a single digital price display for the nozzle removed from its receptacle. So are those low octanes typical there?

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EXCELLENT question, never gave it a thought - Leaded and Ethanol

by ,ndo, Certifiable!, Sunday, May 14, 2023, 20:03 (309 days ago) @ ,ndo

this is a decent example

[image]

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EXCELLENT question, never gave it a thought - Leaded and Ethanol

by Cornpop Sutton ⌂, A bad bad dude who makes good shine., Sunday, May 14, 2023, 22:36 (309 days ago) @ ,ndo
edited by Cornpop Sutton, Sunday, May 14, 2023, 22:41

How gas sales appear to work in the US:

E10 is pretty much universal and can't be avoided. Assume all fuel is E10 unless it is marketed as 0% ethanol marine fuel. Some stations don't even bother to post this fact, they just assume that you know that their fuel will have 10% ethanol. (We have a powerful corn lobby that foisted this fraud off on the US.)

I've seen as low as 87 at the pump and occasionally 95 but more like 93 as premium. There used to be a 10 cent price break between each adjacent grade like "regular" (87), "mid grade" (89 or 91) and premium (93.) Now the jump between regular and mid grade may be 20 cents and the jump up to premium can be 60 cents+ from regular. A few stations like Sunoco had a device to dial in the octane and theirs would go up to 95.

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disappeared in the 80s

by ,ndo, Certifiable!, Sunday, May 14, 2023, 20:27 (309 days ago) @ Cornpop Sutton

I was just thinking about my last leaded car and when I bought it. So I'm thinking leaded petrol ended here in the late '90s.

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