How do you get from LLM AI to AGI? Will computing power do that? Is that why companies are building massive data centers everywhere? It can't be to just sustain LLM AI.

I believe more like, if you string 1000 pieces of shit together, then life will not spring from it like the primordial soup. You just get a mountain of shit that's connected like a rope.

Thinking that compute power will make LLM scale up to AGI is basically believing in transmogrification. It won't happen.

In fact if LLMs are chained together you're probably going to run into massive entropy of information, so that what comes out is a lot worse than running the LLM in a simpler mode.

From what I've been reading and viewing it seems like all of the decision makers and investors and capitalists who have developed and pushed the current state of the art for AI are counting on exactly what you said.

IE, the idea seems to be - throw so much compute power at large language models and predictive AI that artificial general intelligence eventually emerges. That's the "industry concensus".

It won't happen.

This is the buried problem of the AI bubble in the stock market and the circular investment of Nvidia in the AI companies who buy chips from Nvidia.

What is being reported in real life is that companies using AI across a range of applications from software engineering to accounting basically don't see identifiable improvements in results or higher productivity. They see high levels of human labor to fact and error check the results. There's an extremely thin market for AI technology and few companies see benefits.

Also consider also that SpaceX's IPO is wrapped around xAI, an AI specific division, as well as plans to deploy orbital data centers. Almost all of SpaceX's IPO revenue is speculating on AI becoming transformative to every part of the economy.

I think:

1) Hardware technology not yet known must be developed that supports AGI. It's probably not just a software problem. (Personally I believe that the real solution that results in AGI will be some kind organic technology, like cultured brain cells that are interfaced to systems.)

2) Almost all of what is predicted about LLM based AI right now is fraudulent pie in the sky.

3) We're probably headed for a monumental market crash. Since most investment money is tied up in AI.