I'm not happy with the war in Iran and the price of oil. He thought it would be a slam dunk in Iran, but he miscalculated. He'll fix it, but the war will take a lot longer. In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz problem keeps energy prices high and it affects prices of everything. I wanted Trump to concentrate on fixing America's problems but here we are again. Another war.

You say you don't hate Trump, but then you call him an oligarch tyrant in the next sentence. It sounds like you do hate him. I'm disgusted that we have to deal with the Iran war, but I haven't given up on Trump. I think he'll fix things.

Obviously, Social Security can be legal if Trump says so. That is all you need.

If you define legal as "don't make promises that can't possibly be kept", then Social Security is an obvious Ponzi.

No, a Ponzi scheme cannot be made legal because the structure itself is a form of fraud. By definition, it involves paying early investors with money raised from new investors rather than from legitimate profits or actual business operations. Because this requires inherent deception, it violates securities and consumer protection laws.

It will NEVER be fixed. My brain did a "Ctrl Alt Del" when I read your last line - Even though its a Ponzi scheme it works and can be made solvent.

I take the tack that SS is a Ponzi scheme that I am a fortunate accidental benefactor of, and I am inadvertently screwing current workers who will never see a similar return on their labor.

And you say that I hate Trump. Sure, say whatever. "Hate" is a way to dismiss someone as irrational. I've had family members gaslight me with that logic.

I don't hate Trump. I really wish he would turn back into pre-election Trump. He's doubled down. 100% oligarch tyrant now.

There's nothing for me to grab onto in any of your points that's worth disputing.

Our generation is much demonized by the younger generation no matter what we do. We're convenient to blame. Its not our fault if they can't make it in life. They can make their life whatever they want if they try. When they get older, they'll understand more how the system works. Its a safety net.

FSK said it best

"The whole point of Social Security is using current taxes to pay current benefits, leaving a huge future liability. It's a political football that can never be undone, because people who paid into Social Security their whole lives will be annoyed if there's a default. Instead, there will be a partial default, either by inflation making the benefit worth less, or higher taxes on current workers."

Even though its a Ponzi scheme it works and can be made solvent.

The ONE thing that protects your and my benefits is political imperative. Social security is a hot potato that nobody will touch. If something happens in the system to force change, the politics may matter less than something else.

Ever hear the phrase "force majeur"? Contracts are breached all the time because money runs out. Read FSK's comments, he 100% nailed it.

Social Security also pays for people with disabilities. I don't know if that is also included in the 1/3 figure, but that would be costly. With retirees, they only live so long. Some people don't even make it to 66, so the government wouldn't have to pay them anything.

Suppose there is $100B or whatever in the Social Security trust fund. All that happens is it causes deflation, or there is inflation elsewhere that goes unnoticed.

A government cannot have a surplus or deficit in its own money. If government runs a deficit, that's inflationary. If government runs a surplus, that's deflationary.

If Social Security is collecting more in taxes than benefits paid, that is deflationary. If Social Security is paying out more than collected taxes, that is inflationary.

The whole point of Social Security is using current taxes to pay current benefits, leaving a huge future liability. It's a political football that can never be undone, because people who paid into Social Security their whole lives will be annoyed if there's a default. Instead, there will be a partial default, either by inflation making the benefit worth less, or higher taxes on current workers.

Any private insurance/pension fund that was run the same as Social Security would be shut down by regulators for being insolvent.

I agree with that completely.

They're still too expensive to support with the current numbers given the national debt. Inflation has made both very costly to support.

Q: "what are social security and medicare's portion of the US budget in 2026?"

A:

In the 2026 federal budget, Social Security accounts for approximately 23% of total federal spending, making it the largest single government program. Medicare makes up about 14% of the budget. Together, these two programs represent more than one-third of the entire $7 trillion federal outlay.

1/3 of the federal budget to support retirees.

Other Welfare programs outside of that are a different story. They are freebies to people that never paid into the system.

I'm truly thankful for SS and Medicare. I don't think I could afford to live without it because I'm older and past my working years. If I never had to pay into SS and Medicare and could have saved that money and invested it myself, it wouldn't have been enough because I'm far from a savvy investor.

The home prices are elevated because there isn't enough inventory and its been that way for years. Its because of illegal immigration. They buy houses and have to live somewhere. Trump is working on it but its not an easy problem to fix.

No. Social Security operates on a pay-as-you-go system, meaning taxes collected from current workers are immediately used to pay benefits to current retirees and other beneficiaries. While FICA payroll taxes are the primary revenue source, payments are also funded by taxing the benefits of higher-income recipients and the interest earned on accumulated trust fund reserves

(from Fidelity)

Therefore the lion's share of Social Security payments are paid with current wage earner's taxes.

Therefore, ENTITLEMENT. My payments are funded on the back of today's wage earners. Which I have always accepted. The government plans on continual inflation to fund things.

Then: "Does the recipient's past fica taxes plus his medicare deduction from social security entirely fund current medical benefits?"

No. A recipient’s past FICA taxes and Medicare deductions do not entirely fund their current medical benefits. Medicare operates primarily as a pay-as-you-go system. The taxes paid by today's active workforce pay for the benefits of current retirees.Furthermore, FICA taxes and Social Security deductions are not the only sources of funding for the program. The broader Medicare Financial Status involves several other funding streams:General Federal Revenues: General tax revenue (income taxes and other federal funds) covers a massive portion of Medicare costs—typically around 40-75% depending on the specific part of the program.Beneficiary Premiums: Enrollees pay monthly premiums (like for Medicare Part B and Part D) which cover a significant share of outpatient and prescription drug costs.Social Security Benefit Taxes: A portion of the income taxes that high-earning seniors pay on their Social Security benefits is directed into the Medicare trust funds.Interest & Other Sources: The Medicare trust funds also earn interest on investments and collect taxes from high-earning individuals.

Jo, this stuff is mostly ENTITLEMENT. You're wrong, it's not all earned. You and I BARELY paid for most of what we draw today, and what we draw today wouldn't be meaningful without subsidies.

Others are helping pay our way. JUST. LIKE. Welfare.

If I received what I paid myself into FICA over the years as an investment stream it would be a few hundred a month, tops.

Home prices I agree. We are in the same boat. The $ that Zillow reports on our house is purely theoretical because we would have to replace it with something.

But most people feel financially more well off when their home equity rises. And Trump wants inflation. He's quoted that way, and he won't fix it.

Socialist programs are "free" taxpayer dollars from the government, like SNAP and other welfare programs like that. You don't specifically fund them like you do with Medicare and SS, so its different. These programs are loaded with fraud to. A lot of illegals are living off our tax dollars.

The problem with the houses going up in value is they're really not worth those inflated prices. I'm older than you. I'd like to move to a different house, but even with cash from selling my existing house, I might need to get a mortgage to afford even a small house like the one I have already. Competition in the housing market is fierce. My neighbor just sold his house for $50k over asking price. I've never seen a housing market quite like this one.

We need entitlement programs for people that earn them and the truly needy, but not for freeloaders and fraudsters. We have so many illegals in this country and they all are very well-versed in how to game our many welfare systems. At least now its all being exposed and shut down. You're entitled to your benefits because you've paid into them, specifically, your entire working life.

At least with Trump we got rid of wokeness, and climate, DEI and ESG are no longer fashionable. Those are solid wins.

HOWEVER: The attacks on Iran caused Iran to close and later limit the Strait of Hormuz which allegedly will have knock-on effects like famine, total shutdown of supply chains worldwide, and economic collapse.

So Trump's war actions have arguably caused the world economy to take an immense dump.

And within the US we now have this creepy totalitarian mindset: data centers and the AI buildout being unquestioningly forced onto the US public for one thing, surveillance of every citizen being a baked in assumption by now.

I would never vote for Harris or a surrogate.

I think in general she would've let everything standing under Biden run free with no restraints, and deportation and border control would not be a thing with her.

Trump has meddled so deeply with the armed services and intervened in battlefield tactics so that if Harris HAD also attacked Iran, the war under her probably would have gone better. I can see her not debating with the military because it would all be utterly over her head.

So while I hate Harris I can make a case that certain things would be better now under her. Seriously.

For another example, Trump is completely wrong on the H1b issue, something that affects everyone posting here. I probably personally lost $5M+ to H1bs over my career, due to being forced to take a lower salary or worse job than if H1bs weren't distorting the market.

The reason he liked the high inflation number of 4% is because he thought it would be much worse because of the Iran war. It wasn't because he likes inflation or wants housing prices to remain high. He will fix it but it'll take time and is dependent on resolving the Iran situation. Negotiations are still ongoing. Our "win" there is removing the nuclear dust, or if that's not possible fixing it so it can't be accessed by Iran.

I faced the same challenges young people have today when I started working. The economy in the 70's was far from robust, but I made my way because I was willing to work hard and had a great work ethic. Today's youth want to walk in at the top job and don't understand that's not how it works. You have to work your way up.

Trump is a great president. I always consider the horrific state of the country that was left to him by Biden. Open borders for four years. Sky high inflation. Transgenderism. I could go on. Those are hard problems to deal with. He has greatly improved things but its a work in progress. Everything Trump does in his presidency has to do with preserving his legacy. That is very important to him and why he will fix inflation and the housing problem before his term is up.

What you're missing is patience.

That would create a couple of problems but they could be fixed

I love principles - logical standards - not politicians.

I supported Trump when he appeared to be "one thing."

(only) Because he aligned mostly with principles I hold.

I have thoroughly flipped the bozo bit on Trump at this point because of his fraudulent conduct of the presidency: wars, inflationary policies, blindness on many issues, his constant pep talk bullshit, his 30+ reversals on an Iranian peace deal.

Trump today, 7/1/26, is not the same Trump I was lead to believe was running in November 2024.

I apply the same standards to myself:

I AM CONDITIONED TO SOME DEGREE OF SOCIALISM. GIMME MY MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY!! I EARNED IT AND IF SUBSIDIES FROM TAX ARE NECESSARY I STILL WANT IT.

(sic: SS and medicare are the biggest components of US spending. I'm breaking the balls of workers today and I don't care.)

I WANT MY HOUSE TO KEEP GOING UP AND UP IN VALUE. SCREW NEW HOME BUYERS, THEY CAN PAY.

(sic: I purchased my Eisenhower era ranch for $X in 1993 and now is worth approximately $X * 3.8.)

I'm saying that the stuff that is in my personal interest at my age and in my circumstances to keep going - housing inflation and entitlement spending - is destructive to the common good.

I cop to that, I admit that.

College educated people have been indoctrinated into communism ...

Generally true but the issue is much more pervasive. We're quasi-socialist. IE, medicare, medicaid and social security are all untouchable politically. You can argue that you earned that stuff but I say "talk to the hand" - just the idea that you deserve the government payments makes you have socialist leanings.

If I was young today, I still wouldn't want to fight for communism/socialism.

You have absolutely no idea what an "alternative timeline you" would think or be like, especially if hardships like what today's youth face such as zero professional mobility are lumped on your back.

Sic: I was fortunate to grow up and come of age at exactly the time when a lazy assed slacker like my 22 year old self could command multiple job offers with exactly almost nothing to bring to the table except "potential".

Many young people today are uneducated

Everyone at all levels are uneducated. Meaning: zero critical thinking skills, unobservant, ripe for propaganda, etc.

Mamdani struck gold with the young people today because

Much more generally his "free stuff for the deserving downtrodden/eat the rich" ethos plays well today because there are no safety nets, just welfare.

Trump loves this country and I think he'll fix the inflation and housing problems. Its going to take time, but it'll happen.

Jesus Christ. Really. You took the bait.

You have boomercon (baby boomer conservative) faith in Trump that's completely outlived his year long honeymoon.

Trump ran an utterly fraudulent campaign for starters. "No new wars" was a constant mantra.

Trump now seems to be essentially for anything that damages the average American: inflation, digital surveillance, promoting poisons (making glyphosate a national defense priority).

I'll repeat - Trump has stated recently that he likes inflation. He does not want the "nest egg" of his boomer constituents' homes to decline AKA increase affordability.

And Trump wants nay demands a lowered fed interest rate which will aggravate inflation. As well as a hugely inflationary no-win war that is a pathetic debacle that makes the US look stupid.

Trump is pro inflation. You said above he will "fix" inflation. You don't connect the dots apparently because you worship him. That angers me a bit. I like to debate people who are sharp and on the game. I don't host this forum to see mechanical responses.

I know I'm being shitty and rude toward you in my response, but PLEASE FIGHT ME ON THIS.

Show me what I'm missing. And don't just quote Fox and Friends rah rah talking points. Come up with something that persuades me that Trump will redeem his presidency. Which he is not doing at present.